By Adam Musaev
@redlineproject
Some of the states that produced the largest and deadliest wildfires in American history now rank at the bottom of the national burn probability index compiled by the U.S. Forest Service’s Wildfire Risk to Communities project.
Illinois ranks at the 10th percentile for burn probability. Illinois has one of the lowest in the nation and well below neighboring states such as Missouri at the 40th percentile and Iowa at the 30th percentile.
The state’s low ranking reflects its largely agricultural and urban land cover. Illinois has no entry in the historical record of the 10 largest wildfires in U.S. history. The Great Chicago Fire occurred Oct. 8, 1871 and it was the same night as the Peshtigo Fire in Wisconsin and the Great Michigan Fire. While the Chicago fire drew significantly more national attention due to major architectural damage, it does not appear among the 10 largest wildfires in U.S. history by acreage.
Maine ranks at the zero percentile. Wisconsin ranks at the 18th percentile. Michigan ranks at the 24th percentile. All three states had fires in the 1800s that made the history books.
The 1825 Miramichi Fire, recorded as the largest wildfire in U.S. history, burned an estimated 3 million acres and killed at least 160 people, with most of the burning taking place in New Brunswick, Canada, and spreading into Maine. The Peshtigo Fire of October 1871 in Wisconsin burned more than 1 million acres and killed more than 1,500 people — the deadliest wildfire in U.S. history. The Great Michigan Fire, which occurred the same month, burned an estimated 2.5 million acres and killed fewer than 250 people.
Today, the states with the highest burn probability rankings are concentrated in the West and Southwest. Nevada ranks at the 100th percentile. California ranks at 98th. Idaho ranks at 96th. Washington ranks at 94th. Oregon ranks at 92nd.
Records from those states reflect the largest fires in more recent times. The August Complex, a merger of 37 separate fires in Mendocino County, Calif., burned 1.03 million acres in August 2020. The Dixie Fire burned 963,309 acres across Butte, Plumas, Lassen, Shasta and Tehama counties, Calif., beginning July 13, 2021, and was not fully contained until Oct. 26, 2021. The Smokehouse Creek Fire burned 1.07 million acres across the Texas Panhandle over nearly three weeks in February 2024, killing two people. Texas ranks at the 78th percentile.
The Taylor Complex Fire in Alaska, which ranks at the 76th percentile today, burned 1.3 million acres in 2004 with no reported deaths.
The states that recorded the largest fires in American history now carry the lowest risk scores. The states recording the largest fires today carry the highest. With climate change ongoing, it remains to be seen how in 200 years this map could change. There very well may have been larger, more destructive fires in what is today the western states, but these may have been unnoted before official statehood and accompanying records.
